By William Koblensky Varela, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Nunavut News
How much oil and gas is under Nunavut’s oil and waters has likely been overestimated, in part due to a “hype cycle” around extracting resources from the Arctic, according to Keith Dewing, a research scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada.
The most accurate study estimated that 58.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is in Nunavut, a 2009 Drummond Consulting report for Northern Affairs Canada found.
That’s less than half of what Natural Resources Canada’s website currently lists as “technically recoverable” in the territory.
Nunavut likely has three-quarters as much natural gas as British Columbia, or one-fifth as much as Alberta, according to the Drummond report.
Premier John Main, shortly after being elected in November 2025, said he wants to use natural gas reserves as a revenue tool.
Nunavut’s crude oil reserves are likely 2.7 billion barrels, according to the report — just 14 per cent of Natural Resources Canada’s figures.
That’s less than one-third of Saskatchewan’s oil, and one-10th of Alberta’s oil deposits.
“The numbers that we generate are not a single number. There’s always a range and a probability. So I don’t think they were clearly articulated with the uncertainty in mind. The references they cite are probably not the most recent,” Dewing said of Natural Resources Canada.
New research could increase deposit estimates
Complicating matters is a recent assessment from Dewing on Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait, between Nunavut and Greenland.
The Geological Survey of Canada found 20 billion barrels of either natural gas or crude oil off the coast of Baffin Island in 2025.
If the deposit turns out to contain natural gas, it will confirm deposits are lower than historically believed.
But if the those 20 billion barrels are entirely crude oil, that would put Nunavut’s oil deposits at roughly the same level as in Qatar or China.
Dewing doubts all the deposits in Baffin Bay are crude oil, because the nearby Labrador Sea and Nova Scotia basin both turned out to have only natural gas.
There’s a 5.8 per cent chance of a single drilling site hitting that deposit, which is much lower than usual in Canada.
A five-year scientific assessment on the existing Arctic Ocean drilling ban is due in 2027, and whether to lift the moratorium is up to the federal government to decide by the end of 2028.
But the Government of Nunavut will gain control of land-based oil and gas rights in 2027, according to Nunavut Tunngavik Inc (NTI).
Why the hype cycle began
Studies have been done on oil and gas reserves in Nunavut since 1968, but no extraction has ever taken place.
Dewing said historical studies overestimated oil and gas reserves in Nunavut because of the harsh climate.
“If you’re going to do something that’s high risk, you want a higher reward,” he said.
Discoveries made in Alaska also fuelled speculation in the Arctic, according to Dewing.
But retesting of the samples using modern techniques has revealed that the Canadian Arctic has a different geology.
“There’s a hype basically, where people think ‘wow, this could be the big one’ then, of course, they go and drill a couple of wells. And if they come up dry or maybe they discover the conditions are not quite the same in the Canadian Arctic as they were in Alaska,” Dewing said.
A similar story played out after oil reserves were found in the Michigan basin, and a hype cycle began around Hudson Bay.
Important geological differences were later found between the two areas, according to Dewing.
Another spark for the hype cycle could have been the fuel crisis in the 1970s, when a shortage left gas pumps dry across the world.
“There probably was an overall feeling of concern and a hope that the Canadian North would would have a lot of oil and gas,” Dewing said of that era.
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